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LLM-selected modes based on XGBoost and Monte Carlo inputs
| Slot | Player | Opp | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | LAR | 15.3 | 20.0 | BOOM | HIGH |
| RB | Bucky Irving | NO | 16.4 | 15.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| RB | Tyjae Spears | CLE | 8.6 | 9.0 | MODERATE | LOW |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | ATL | 20.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | HIGH |
| WR | Rashee Rice | HOU | 17.1 | 16.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| FLEX | Jameson Williams | DAL | 16.9 | 17.3 | BOOM | ACTUAL |
| TE | Juwan Johnson | TB | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| K | Jason Myers | ATL | 8.3 | 9.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
| D/ST | Rams D/ST | ARI | 6.8 | 8.0 | MODERATE | MEDIUM |
Jordan Love (Elite ceiling (36 pts)), Keenan Allen (Elite ceiling (37 pts)), Tetairoa McMillan (Elite ceiling (35 pts)), Emanuel Wilson (Elite ceiling (27 pts)), Hunter Henry (Elite ceiling (30 pts)), Omarion Hampton (Elite ceiling (30 pts))
Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
No urgent moves needed. Consider streaming options if needing upside - Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) has 27.5% boom probability.
See ML Analysis tab for MC histograms. See Waivers tab for full analysis.
Week 14 presents a favorable matchup against Meat Pistols despite trailing 24.0-17.3 after Thursday. Jacoby Brissett headlines as our top play, having scored 18+ points in all seven starts for Arizona - we're trusting his consistency over Jordan Love's cold weather risk at Lambeau (15°F, wind chill near zero). JSN leads the NFL in receiving yards and faces a Falcons defense that's allowed the 5th-most WR points since Week 9. Bucky Irving returns to a full workload against New Orleans, who've surrendered 100+ rushing yards to four different backs this season. Our projected 122.3 points gives us a comfortable 44-point edge if actualized.
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameson Williams | WR | RB/WR/TE | ✓ 17.3 | 13.8 | 17.3 | 0.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | QB | 15.3 | 20.0 |
| Bucky Irving | RB | RB | 16.4 | 15.0 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | RB | 8.6 | 9.0 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | WR | 20.9 | 18.0 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | WR | 17.1 | 16.0 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 |
| Jason Myers | K | K | 8.3 | 9.0 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 8.0 |
| Emanuel Wilson (bench) | RB | BE | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| Hunter Henry (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Jordan Love (bench) | QB | BE | 17.6 | 16.5 |
| Keenan Allen (bench) | WR | BE | 10.5 | 8.0 |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Omarion Hampton (bench) | RB | BE | 12.1 | --- |
| Tetairoa McMillan (bench) | WR | BE | 0.0 | 11.0 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | Actual | ESPN | LLM | vs ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aubrey | K | K | ✓ 24.0 | 8.9 | 8.9 | +15.1 |
| Player | Pos | Slot | ESPN | LLM |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | QB | 17.9 | 20.1 |
| Nick Chubb | RB | RB | 5.3 | 7.5 |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | RB | 3.2 | 7.8 |
| Keon Coleman | WR | WR | 6.7 | 9.2 |
| Malik Washington | WR | WR | 8.4 | 8.2 |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | TE | 10.0 | 9.6 |
| DJ Moore | WR | RB/WR/TE | 12.8 | 11.9 |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 |
| Chris Boswell (bench) | K | BE | 7.9 | --- |
| Christian McCaffrey (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| J.J. McCarthy (bench) | QB | BE | 14.7 | --- |
| Packers D/ST (bench) | D/ST | BE | 3.7 | --- |
| Ray Davis (bench) | RB | BE | 2.6 | 0.0 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson (bench) | RB | BE | 0.0 | --- |
| Sam LaPorta (bench) | TE | BE | 0.0 | --- |
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 16.5 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 29% BUST, 47% MOD, 24% BOOM. XGB: 28% boom, 24% bust. Love has 2+ TDs in 3 of last 6. vs CHI (22nd vs passing). BUT SEVERE WEATHER: 15F kickoff, wind chill near 0, snow possible. Cold weather risk. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.5 pts (within [9-24]).
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 22 | ECR: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 23% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 15.3 | LLM 20.0 (BOOM)
Reasoning: MC: 70% BOOM (historical, range 16-28). XGB: 23% boom, 32% bust (MEDIUM). LLM DISAGREES with XGB - Brissett has 18+ pts in ALL 7 starts, 300+ yds in 3 straight. LAR gave up 22.5 pts to Bryce Young. Despite XGB caution, historical consistency dominates. Mode: BOOM. Projection: 20.0 pts (within [16-28]).
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 7 | ECR: 10
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 5% | BOOM: 70%
XGB (This Week): Boom 23% | Bust 32% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.7 | 18.7 | ? | +1.9 |
Projections: ESPN 16.4 | LLM 15.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 17% BUST, 61% MOD, 22% BOOM. XGB: 9% boom, 54% bust (MEDIUM). XGB shows high bust risk but vs NO (26th vs RB). 4 RBs have 100+ yds vs Saints. Irving had 81 total yds, TD in return. Trusting matchup over XGB bust signal. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 15.0 pts (within [8-20]).
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 26 | ECR: 15
MC (Historical): BUST: 17% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 17.5 | 25.5 | ? | +8.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 17.9 | 13.9 | ? | -4.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 15.9 | 18.1 | ? | +2.2 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 17.3 | 14.5 | ? | -2.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.6 | LLM 9.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 20% BUST, 61% MOD, 18% BOOM. XGB: 17% boom, 36% bust. Spears in timeshare but Tony Pollard questionable. CLE 9th vs RB - tough matchup. Projected 9.0 for floor. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 9.0 pts (within [5-14]).
Context: O/U: 38.0 | Def Rank: 9
MC (Historical): BUST: 20% | MODERATE: 61% | BOOM: 18%
XGB (This Week): Boom 17% | Bust 36% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.6 | 6.5 | ? | -3.1 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 9.0 | 8.4 | ? | -0.6 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 9.5 | 9.2 | ? | -0.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.5 | 17.2 | ? | +7.7 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 7.8 | 7.0 | ? | -0.8 |
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: Hampton practiced FULL Friday per Reddit. BUT traded from CAR to LAC mid-season. Still working into offense. vs KC. Mode: BUST until clearer role. Projection: 0.0 pts (IR status).
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: Unk | ECR: 25
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 57% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 49% BUST, 29% MOD, 23% BOOM. XGB: 13% boom, 50% bust. Wilson is RB3 behind Josh Jacobs. SEVERE WEATHER may help run game but limited touches expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within [0-8]).
Context: O/U: 44.5 | Def Rank: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 14.5 | 26.5 | ? | +12.0 |
Projections: ESPN 20.9 | LLM 18.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 34% BUST, 43% MOD, 23% BOOM (range 12-26). XGB: 11% boom, 24% bust. JSN leads NFL in receiving yards (1,336). ATL 15th vs WR but allowed 5th most WR pts since Week 9. Last week's 23 yds was outlier (26-0 blowout). Bounce-back candidate. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 18.0 pts (within [12-26]).
Context: O/U: 43.5 | Def Rank: 15 | ECR: 1
MC (Historical): BUST: 34% | MODERATE: 43% | BOOM: 22%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 24% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 21.3 | 37.1 | ? | +15.8 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 23.0 | 20.6 | ? | -2.4 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 22.0 | 20.3 | ? | -1.7 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 24.5 | 22.0 | ? | -2.5 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 20.0 | 26.3 | ? | +6.3 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 17.9 | 30.2 | ? | +12.3 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 15.9 | 27.2 | ? | +11.3 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 16.4 | 13.0 | ? | -3.4 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 15.5 | 20.6 | ? | +5.1 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 14.4 | 18.3 | ? | +3.9 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 14.7 | 19.4 | ? | +4.7 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 11.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 50% BUST, 33% MOD, 17% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 54% bust. With Kyler OUT, Brissett targets McMillan heavily. vs LAR (tough). Young WR still developing. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within [7-21]).
Context: O/U: 47.5 | Def Rank: 12
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: MHJ OUT for remainder of 2025 season per reports. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.
Context: O/U: 47.0 | Def Rank: 12 | ECR: 13
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 13.3 | 14.3 | ? | +1.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 13.3 | 22.6 | ? | +9.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 7.8 | ? | -4.7 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 11.9 | 5.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 12.8 | 13.8 | ? | +1.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 11.3 | 18.6 | ? | +7.3 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 12.7 | 7.4 | ? | -5.3 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 14.0 | 4.7 | ? | -9.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 18.1 | ? | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 17.1 | LLM 16.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 25% BUST, 29% MOD, 47% BOOM. XGB: 31% boom, 31% bust (MEDIUM). Rice has 7+ targets in all 6 games since return, 8-92-2 last week. BUT HOU is #2 vs WR with Stingley likely shadowing. Tough matchup dampens BOOM odds. Mode: MODERATE (lower end due to coverage). Projection: 16.0 pts (within [10-22]).
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 2 | ECR: 6
MC (Historical): BUST: 24% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 47%
XGB (This Week): Boom 34% | Bust 31% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 17.6 | 24.1 | ? | +6.5 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 16.4 | 9.8 | ? | -6.6 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 18.4 | 18.6 | ? | +0.2 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 17.2 | 25.5 | ? | +8.2 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 13.7 | 23.2 | ? | +9.5 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 16.9 | LLM 17.3 (BOOM)
Reasoning: Thursday game COMPLETED. Actual: 17.3 pts. Game result preserved.
Context: O/U: 54.5 | Def Rank: 30 | ECR: 16
MC (Historical): BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 41% | BOOM: 26%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 51% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 12.9 | 0.0 | ? | -12.9 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 12.6 | 19.7 | ? | +7.1 |
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: MC: 63% BUST, 26% MOD, 11% BOOM. XGB: 10% boom, 54% bust. Allen has 63% historical bust rate. Herbert injured (wrist surgery), may not play. If Trey Lance starts, massive downgrade. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within [3-13]).
Context: O/U: 40.5 | Def Rank: 7 | ECR: 23
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.5 | 3.9 | ? | -8.6 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 14.0 | 6.1 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 16.0 | 8.4 | ? | -7.6 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 13.5 | 28.9 | ? | +15.4 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 16.3 | 6.7 | ? | -9.6 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.6 | 10.8 | ? | -3.8 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 13.6 | 8.7 | ? | -4.9 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.4 | 19.5 | ? | +6.1 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 12.9 | 17.1 | ? | +4.2 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 11.0 | 19.8 | ? | +8.8 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0 (BUST)
Reasoning: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
Context: O/U: 44.0 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 27
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8.3 | 7.3 | ? | -1.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 7.3 | 3.2 | ? | -4.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 7.9 | 0.0 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.9 | 7.6 | ? | -2.3 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 9.3 | 9.2 | ? | -0.1 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 8.9 | 9.9 | ? | +1.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7.7 | 13.3 | ? | +5.6 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 6.2 | 6.9 | ? | +0.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 8.9 | 2.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 9.9 | 5.1 | ? | -4.8 |
Projections: ESPN 9.7 | LLM 10.0 (MODERATE)
Reasoning: MC: 28% BUST, 35% MOD, 36% BOOM. XGB: 24% boom, 29% bust. Johnson has 18-208-2 in last 4 games with Shough. 27.8% boom chance leads TEs. Questionable (knee) but expected to play. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 10.0 pts (within [6-12]).
Context: O/U: 42.5 | Def Rank: 16 | ECR: 6
MC (Historical): BUST: 28% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 36%
XGB (This Week): Boom 24% | Bust 29% (MEDIUM)
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 9.3 | 10.6 | ? | +1.3 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 8.9 | 19.2 | ? | +10.2 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 8.3 | 12.1 | ? | +3.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A (BUST)
Reasoning: Patriots on BYE Week 14. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60% (MEDIUM)
Projections: ESPN 17.6 | LLM 16.5
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 47% | BOOM: 24%
XGB (This Week): Boom 27% | Bust 23%
Notes: MC: 29% BUST, 47% MOD, 24% BOOM. XGB: 28% boom, 24% bust. Love has 2+ TDs in 3 of last 6. vs CHI (22nd vs passing). BUT SEVERE WEATHER: 15F kickoff, wind chill near 0, snow possible. Cold weather risk. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 16.5 pts (within [9-24]).
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 17.4 | 7.1 | ? | -10.4 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 16.3 | 17.7 | ? | +1.3 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 17.0 | 7.8 | ? | -9.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 18.1 | 9.0 | ? | -9.1 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 17.1 | 28.3 | ? | +11.2 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 17.4 | 13.4 | ? | -4.0 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 19.3 | 15.0 | ? | -4.4 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 18.6 | 26.3 | ? | +7.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 16.0 | 11.1 | ? | -4.9 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 17.6 | 20.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 14.9 | 15.9 | ? | +1.0 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM 11.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 50% | MODERATE: 33% | BOOM: 16%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 52%
Notes: MC: 50% BUST, 33% MOD, 17% BOOM. XGB: 11% boom, 54% bust. With Kyler OUT, Brissett targets McMillan heavily. vs LAR (tough). Young WR still developing. Mode: MODERATE. Projection: 11.0 pts (within [7-21]).
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 16.3 | 11.5 | ? | -4.8 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 13.5 | 33.0 | ? | +19.5 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.2 | 11.0 | ? | -1.2 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 12.9 | 8.6 | ? | -4.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 13.4 | 16.9 | ? | +3.5 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 6.3 | ? | -6.2 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 14.6 | 17.9 | ? | +3.3 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.2 | 13.3 | ? | -0.9 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 14.2 | 10.2 | ? | -4.0 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.2 | 7.8 | ? | -5.4 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 13.5 | 16.0 | ? | +2.5 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 11.8 | ? | -2.1 |
Projections: ESPN 8.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 52% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 8%
XGB (This Week): Boom 25% | Bust 26%
Notes: ECR: TE27 SIT. MC: 52% BUST prob. Now with DEN, splits reps with Trautman/Adkins. 6.0 within BUST [2.4-8.4]. Avoid unless desperate at TE.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 8.3 | 7.3 | ? | -1.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 7.3 | 3.2 | ? | -4.1 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 7.9 | 0.0 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 9.9 | 7.6 | ? | -2.3 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 9.3 | 9.2 | ? | -0.1 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 8.9 | 9.9 | ? | +1.0 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 7.7 | 13.3 | ? | +5.6 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 6.2 | 6.9 | ? | +0.7 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 8.9 | 2.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 9.9 | 5.1 | ? | -4.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): OUT: 100%
XGB (This Week): Boom 37% | Bust 20%
Notes: MHJ OUT for remainder of 2025 season per reports. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 13.3 | 14.3 | ? | +1.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 13.3 | 22.6 | ? | +9.3 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 12.5 | 7.8 | ? | -4.7 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 11.9 | 5.2 | ? | -6.7 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 12.8 | 13.8 | ? | +1.0 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 11.3 | 18.6 | ? | +7.3 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 12.7 | 7.4 | ? | -5.3 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 14.0 | 4.7 | ? | -9.3 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 13.9 | 18.1 | ? | +4.2 |
Projections: ESPN 12.1 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 29% | MODERATE: 40% | BOOM: 31%
XGB (This Week): Boom 11% | Bust 57%
Notes: Hampton practiced FULL Friday per Reddit. BUT traded from CAR to LAC mid-season. Still working into offense. vs KC. Mode: BUST until clearer role. Projection: 0.0 pts (IR status).
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 11 | Ryan's Rowdy Team | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 0.0 | 0.0 | ? | +0.0 |
Projections: ESPN 6.1 | LLM 6.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 29% | BOOM: 23%
XGB (This Week): Boom 13% | Bust 50%
Notes: MC: 49% BUST, 29% MOD, 23% BOOM. XGB: 13% boom, 50% bust. Wilson is RB3 behind Josh Jacobs. SEVERE WEATHER may help run game but limited touches expected. Mode: BUST. Projection: 6.0 pts (within [0-8]).
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wookie of the Year | 14.5 | 26.5 | ? | +12.0 |
Projections: ESPN 10.5 | LLM 8.0
MC (Historical): BUST: 63% | MODERATE: 26% | BOOM: 11%
XGB (This Week): Boom 10% | Bust 54%
Notes: MC: 63% BUST, 26% MOD, 11% BOOM. XGB: 10% boom, 54% bust. Allen has 63% historical bust rate. Herbert injured (wrist surgery), may not play. If Trey Lance starts, massive downgrade. Mode: BUST. Projection: 8.0 pts (within [3-13]).
| Week | Opp | Proj | Actual | Mode | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chupi and the End Zone Bandits | 12.5 | 3.9 | ? | -8.6 |
| 9 | The Warsaw Pact | 14.0 | 6.1 | ? | -7.9 |
| 8 | Kitty's Piggy Skins | 16.0 | 8.4 | ? | -7.6 |
| 7 | Moms rules | 13.5 | 28.9 | ? | +15.4 |
| 6 | Smooth Roosters | 16.3 | 6.7 | ? | -9.6 |
| 5 | Torta Pounders Football Club | 14.6 | 10.8 | ? | -3.8 |
| 4 | Auto DraftKings | 13.6 | 8.7 | ? | -4.9 |
| 3 | Meat Pistols | 13.4 | 19.5 | ? | +6.1 |
| 2 | 4th and pinches | 12.9 | 17.1 | ? | +4.2 |
| 1 | Wookie of the Year | 11.0 | 19.8 | ? | +8.8 |
Projections: ESPN 0.0 | LLM N/A
MC (Historical): BUST: 49% | MODERATE: 37% | BOOM: 14%
XGB (This Week): Boom 9% | Bust 60%
Notes: Patriots on BYE Week 14. Mode: BUST. Projection: 0.0 pts.
Patrick Mahomes (QB): 48% boom probability
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% | Threat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 17.9 | 20.1 | MODERATE | 48% | 37% | 16% | HIGH | |
| Malik Washington | WR | 8.4 | 8.2 | MODERATE | 27% | 46% | 27% | MEDIUM | |
| DJ Moore | WR | 9.1 | 11.9 | MODERATE | 23% | 52% | 25% | MEDIUM | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | 6.7 | 9.2 | MODERATE | 15% | 55% | 30% | LOW | |
| Ray Davis | RB | 0.0 | 0.0 | BUST | 13% | 36% | 51% | LOW | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | 3.2 | 7.8 | BUST | 12% | 34% | 54% | LOW | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | 5.2 | 6.3 | MODERATE | 12% | 42% | 46% | LOW | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | 5.3 | 7.5 | BUST | 11% | 27% | 62% | LOW | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | 8.9 | 8.9 | BUST | 11% | 26% | 63% | LOW | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | 10.0 | 9.6 | BUST | 10% | 34% | 57% | LOW |
Patrick Mahomes: MC (BUST: 26% | MODERATE: 27% | BOOM: 47%) | XGB (Boom 48% | Bust 16%)
Malik Washington: MC (BUST: 25% | MODERATE: 48% | BOOM: 27%) | XGB (Boom 27% | Bust 27%)
DJ Moore: MC (BUST: 64% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 2%) | XGB (Boom 23% | Bust 25%)
Keon Coleman: MC (BUST: 45% | MODERATE: 42% | BOOM: 13%) | XGB (Boom 15% | Bust 30%)
Ray Davis: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 39% | BOOM: 15%) | XGB (Boom 13% | Bust 51%)
Ollie Gordon II: MC (BUST: 46% | MODERATE: 36% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 54%)
Vikings D/ST: MC (BUST: 48% | MODERATE: 38% | BOOM: 14%) | XGB (Boom 12% | Bust 46%)
Nick Chubb: MC (BUST: 55% | MODERATE: 35% | BOOM: 11%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 62%)
Brandon Aubrey: MC (BUST: 31% | MODERATE: 50% | BOOM: 18%) | XGB (Boom 11% | Bust 63%)
Dalton Kincaid: MC (BUST: 33% | MODERATE: 34% | BOOM: 33%) | XGB (Boom 10% | Bust 57%)
Season Phase: Playoff Positioning - Hold proven performers, ceiling matters more than this week's matchup
Click player names to view full MC histogram analysis.
Note: Protection thresholds adjust by season phase. Currently in Playoff Positioning mode. Players with high ceiling or returning from injury before playoffs are protected from drop suggestions.
| Player | Pos | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% | Own% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | RB | 11.8 | 42% | 20% | 0.0% | |
| Michael Badgley | K | 8.1 | 33% | 42% | 0.0% | |
| Evan Engram | TE | 9.3 | 32% | 22% | 0.0% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | K | 9.7 | 28% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | RB | 0.0 | 28% | 33% | 0.0% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 8.7 | 28% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Garrett Wilson | WR | 14.1 | 27% | 39% | 0.0% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | RB | 8.7 | 27% | 26% | 0.0% | |
| Chiefs D/ST | D/ST | 5.9 | 26% | 31% | 0.0% | |
| Patriots D/ST | D/ST | 7.2 | 22% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Trey Benson | RB | 8.2 | 21% | 37% | 0.0% | |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 15.3 | 19% | 50% | 0.0% | |
| Commanders D/ST | D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% | 0.0% | |
| Matthew Golden | WR | 8.6 | 18% | 46% | 0.0% | |
| Evan McPherson | K | 8.3 | 17% | 53% | 0.0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 15.3 | BUST:50%, MODERATE:30%, BOOM:19% | 19% | 50% | |
| Kyler Murray | 17.2 | BUST:18%, MODERATE:54%, BOOM:29% | 14% | 45% | |
| Justin Fields | 0.0 | OUT:100% | 14% | 49% | |
| Sam Darnold | 15.4 | BUST:38%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:22% | 13% | 41% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.K. Dobbins | 11.8 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:12% | 42% | 20% | |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0.0 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:35%, BOOM:16% | 28% | 33% | |
| Isiah Pacheco | 8.7 | BUST:61%, MODERATE:32%, BOOM:7% | 27% | 26% | |
| Trey Benson | 8.2 | BUST:36%, MODERATE:40%, BOOM:25% | 21% | 37% | |
| Devin Neal | 8.7 | BUST:29%, MODERATE:41%, BOOM:30% | 15% | 47% | |
| Chuba Hubbard | 10.9 | BUST:26%, MODERATE:50%, BOOM:24% | 14% | 49% | |
| Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 9.0 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:36%, BOOM:16% | 9% | 58% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Wilson | 14.1 | BUST:40%, MODERATE:42%, BOOM:19% | 27% | 39% | |
| Matthew Golden | 8.6 | BUST:42%, MODERATE:28%, BOOM:30% | 18% | 46% | |
| Cooper Kupp | 10.3 | BUST:49%, MODERATE:33%, BOOM:17% | 12% | 58% | |
| Tre Tucker | 10.1 | BUST:55%, MODERATE:39%, BOOM:6% | 9% | 42% | |
| Jayden Reed | 11.5 | BUST:37%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:10% | 0% | 0% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | MC Scenarios | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Engram | 9.3 | BUST:48%, MODERATE:45%, BOOM:7% | 32% | 22% | |
| Harold Fannin Jr. | 8.7 | BUST:24%, MODERATE:53%, BOOM:23% | 28% | 26% | |
| Colston Loveland | 9.3 | BUST:44%, MODERATE:38%, BOOM:18% | 8% | 56% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Badgley | 8.1 | 33% | 42% | |
| Ka'imi Fairbairn | 9.7 | 28% | 31% | |
| Evan McPherson | 8.3 | 17% | 53% |
| Player | Team | ESPN | Boom% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiefs D/ST | 5.9 | 26% | 31% | |
| Patriots D/ST | 7.2 | 22% | 43% | |
| Commanders D/ST | 0.0 | 19% | 43% |
Model input: This week's predicted mode probabilities (LLM uses these to make final decisions)
| Player | Pos | ESPN | LLM | Mode | Boom% | Mod% | Bust% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Myers | K | 8.3 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 44.9% | 34.9% | 20.2% |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | --- | 0.0 | BUST | 36.7% | 43.8% | 19.5% |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 17.1 | 16.0 | MODERATE | 33.6% | 35.1% | 31.3% |
| Jordan Love | QB | 17.6 | 16.5 | MODERATE | 26.6% | 50.8% | 22.6% |
| Evan Engram | TE | 8.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 25.3% | 49.2% | 25.5% |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 9.7 | 10.0 | MODERATE | 24.1% | 47.2% | 28.7% |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 15.3 | 20.0 | BOOM | 23.1% | 44.4% | 32.4% |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 8.6 | 9.0 | MODERATE | 17.3% | 47.0% | 35.7% |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | 6.1 | 6.0 | BUST | 13.3% | 37.0% | 49.7% |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 20.9 | 18.0 | MODERATE | 11.4% | 64.5% | 24.0% |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | --- | 11.0 | MODERATE | 11.1% | 36.6% | 52.3% |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | 12.1 | 0.0 | BUST | 11.0% | 32.3% | 56.7% |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 16.9 | 17.3 | BOOM | 10.7% | 38.1% | 51.2% |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 10.5 | 8.0 | BUST | 10.5% | 35.9% | 53.6% |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 6.8 | 8.0 | MODERATE | 9.5% | 29.0% | 61.5% |
| Bucky Irving | RB | 16.4 | 15.0 | MODERATE | 9.1% | 37.0% | 53.9% |
| Hunter Henry | TE | --- | 0.0 | BUST | 8.7% | 31.2% | 60.1% |
Win Probability
Floor: -8.9 pts | Median: +29.5 pts | Ceiling: +67.7 pts
When opponent starters are injured, the system models likely bench substitutions to provide more accurate win probability estimates. (ESPN projections shown - LLM projections only available for our team)
| Position | Injured Starter | Status | ESPN Proj | Replacement | Repl ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | QUESTIONABLE | 12.2 | Sam LaPorta | 11.9 |
Win probability weighted across multiple injury scenarios.
| Scenario | Probability | Opp Total EV | Win Prob | Expected Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All injured starters play | 85.0% | 89.6 | 83.7% | +29.4 |
| All injured starters out | 15.0% | 91.4 | 82.2% | +27.6 |
Key: Click any row to view full histogram. ↑15+ = P(≥15pts) | ↓5- = P(<5pts)
Variance: HIGH CV>0.5 (boom/bust) | MED CV>0.3 (moderate) | LOW CV≤0.3 (consistent)
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | MED | 20.0 | 4.5-28.2 | ↑15+: 65% | ↓5-: 11% | |
| Bucky Irving | RB | MED | 15.0 | 4.4-24.7 | ↑15+: 45% | ↓5-: 12% | |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | HIGH | 9.0 | 2.1-20.1 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 26% | |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | HIGH | 18.0 | 5.6-30.0 | ↑15+: 57% | ↓5-: 7% | |
| Rashee Rice | WR | MED | 16.0 | 7.1-28.0 | ↑15+: 63% | ↓5-: 3% | |
| Jameson Williams | WR | HIGH | 17.3 | 4.1-25.4 | ↑15+: 46% | ↓5-: 15% | |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | HIGH | 10.0 | 2.5-17.0 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 24% | |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 8.0 | 0.0-17.5 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 44% | |
| Jason Myers | K | MED | 9.0 | 4.5-16.3 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 13% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love | QB | MED | 16.5 | 6.3-28.0 | ↑15+: 53% | ↓5-: 6% | |
| Omarion Hampton | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 2.5-24.4 | ↑15+: 35% | ↓5-: 23% | |
| Emanuel Wilson | RB | HIGH | 6.0 | 0.4-19.7 | ↑15+: 22% | ↓5-: 45% | |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | HIGH | 11.0 | 5.0-25.4 | ↑15+: 29% | ↓5-: 10% | |
| Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | LOW | 0.0 | 0.0-0.0 | ↑15+: 0% | ↓5-: 100% | |
| Keenan Allen | WR | HIGH | 8.0 | 4.5-25.6 | ↑15+: 34% | ↓5-: 14% | |
| Hunter Henry | TE | HIGH | 0.0 | 3.3-22.1 | ↑15+: 19% | ↓5-: 27% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | MED | 20.1 | 9.8-31.1 | ↑15+: 68% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Nick Chubb | RB | HIGH | 7.5 | 1.6-15.9 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 43% | |
| Ollie Gordon II | RB | HIGH | 7.8 | 0.4-17.1 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 43% | |
| DJ Moore | WR | HIGH | 11.9 | 4.1-22.7 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 18% | |
| Keon Coleman | WR | HIGH | 9.2 | 2.6-18.3 | ↑15+: 17% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Malik Washington | WR | HIGH | 8.2 | 2.0-15.8 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 33% | |
| Dalton Kincaid | TE | HIGH | 9.6 | 2.7-18.4 | ↑15+: 21% | ↓5-: 28% | |
| Vikings D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.3 | 0.0-20.6 | ↑15+: 16% | ↓5-: 59% | |
| Brandon Aubrey | K | HIGH | 8.9 | 3.3-16.7 | ↑15+: 15% | ↓5-: 22% |
| Player | Pos | Var | Proj | Range (80%) | Boom/Bust | Distribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | HIGH | 14.9 | 3.5-26.5 | ↑15+: 47% | ↓5-: 16% | |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | MED | 22.3 | 11.5-34.9 | ↑15+: 72% | ↓5-: 0% | |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | HIGH | 10.3 | 2.1-20.5 | ↑15+: 25% | ↓5-: 31% | |
| Ray Davis | RB | HIGH | 0.0 | 0.2-15.8 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 48% | |
| Sam LaPorta | TE | HIGH | 11.4 | 3.7-19.9 | ↑15+: 32% | ↓5-: 19% | |
| Packers D/ST | D/ST | HIGH | 6.8 | 0.0-16.1 | ↑15+: 12% | ↓5-: 47% | |
| Chris Boswell | K | HIGH | 8.4 | 1.9-15.4 | ↑15+: 11% | ↓5-: 31% |
| Player | Position | BOOM | MODERATE | BUST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bucky Irving | RB | 22% @ 23.8 | 61% @ 14.0 | 17% @ 4.3 | 14.6 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 23% @ 29.4 | 43% @ 18.6 | 34% @ 7.2 | 17.1 |
| Rashee Rice | WR | 47% @ 24.2 | 29% @ 15.7 | 25% @ 7.9 | 17.8 |
| Tyjae Spears | RB | 18% @ 20.4 | 61% @ 8.9 | 20% @ 3.0 | 9.8 |
| Jason Myers | K | 22% @ 15.9 | 44% @ 11.2 | 34% @ 5.8 | 10.3 |
| Juwan Johnson | TE | 36% @ 14.7 | 35% @ 9.2 | 28% @ 3.6 | 9.6 |
| Jameson Williams | WR | 26% @ 24.0 | 41% @ 15.2 | 33% @ 5.6 | 14.4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 70% @ 21.7 | 5% @ 14.8 | 24% @ 6.0 | 17.5 |
| Rams D/ST | D/ST | 23% @ 16.3 | 40% @ 8.0 | 37% @ 1.3 | 7.5 |
No urgent moves needed. Consider streaming options if needing upside - Harold Fannin Jr. (TE, CLE) has 27.5% boom probability.
This tab logs discrepancies detected during the weekly analysis process.
No discrepancies detected this week.